Indonesia an emerging powerhouse – MoneyWeek


Indonesia’scomparativelylowexposuretotheglobaleconomyandsolidconsumptionensuredthat,duringtheglobalcrisisof2008/2009,Indonesiagrewby4。

5%。

Sincethengrowthhasrebounded,reaching6。

5%thisyear。

Thecountry’slong-termprospectsarebright。

StandardCharteredthinksthattheeconomy,currentlyworthjustover$700bn,couldexpandalmost13-foldto$9trnby2030,andbecometheworld’ssixth-biggesteconomyafterChina,America,India,BrazilandJapan。

Itiscurrentlythe18th-biggesteconomy。

Greatdomesticpotential

Thedomesticeconomyispoweredbytherapidlygrowingpopulationof240millionpeople。

By2030,thepopulationwillhavereached315million,accordingtoStandardChartered。

TheWorldBankexpectstheworking-agepopulationtopeakin2040;China’sislikelytopeakthisdecade。

Indonesia’slabourforceisnotonlyhuge,butitisalsoincreasinglyrich。

Asthenewmiddleclassesflextheirfinancialmuscle,spendingisrisingrapidly。

Carsaleshitarecordthissummer。

ThenumberofnewmillionairesisrisingfasterthaninChinaandIndia,accordingtoastudybyCLSAandJuliusBaer。

Thelatestsignofmountingwealth,saysAnthonyDeutschonFT。

com,isthatthenumberofregisteredorthodontistsquadrupledto160thisyear。

Thereisamplescopeforspendingtoriseoverthenextfewyearsasconsumershavelittledebt。

Anotherlong-termadvantageforIndonesiaisthatitis“flushwithnaturalresources”,saysKevinGrewalonSeekingalpha。

com。

Itistheworld’slargestexporterofthermalcoalandpalmoilandhasplentyofcrudeoil,naturalgas,tin,copperandgold。

Indonesiaalsoboastslabourcostsamongthelowestintheregion,soitis“quicklybecominganincreasinglypopulardestination”forinvestment,saysEricDutram,alsoonSeekingalpha。

com。

Followingyearsofdeleveraging,thenationaldebt-to-GDPratioisamere26%,givingthegovernmentscopetoboostspendingtocounteractaslowdown。

Fromnear-collapseaftertheAsiancrisis,anddespiteproblemssuchascorruptionandredtape,Indonesiaiswidelytalkedofasanew‘BRIC’state。

Howtoinvest

However,whiletheeconomymaynotbehithardbyaWesterndownturn,thestockmarketcan’tdecouplefromglobalsentiment,asthesummerslideshows。

SowhileIndonesia’slong-termprospectsareexcellent,themurkynear-termoutlookfortheworldeconomymeansthatthenextfewmonthscouldbeunusuallyvolatile。

Ifyou’relookingforawaytoplaythemarket,MoneyWeekAsia’sCrisSholtoHeatonfavoursAberdeen’sUS-listedIndonesiaFund(NYSE:IF)。

Itiscurrentlyonan8。

3%discounttonetassetvalue。

(SeeMoneyWeekAsiaformore。

)

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